IBBC held its eighth weekly geopolitical and security update for members on 20 April, continuing the series of briefings convened since the outbreak of hostilities in the Gulf.

The session was led by Jon Wilks, Senior Adviser to the Iraq Britain Business Council and Fellow at the Atlantic Council. He was joined by Professor Frank Gunter, member of the IBBC Advisory Council and Professor at Lehigh University. Christophe Michels, Managing Director of IBBC, chaired the discussion.

Economic and financial dynamics were a central focus, particularly the impact of significantly reduced oil revenues in March (down to 28% of February levels) due to the Hormuz blockade, and the options available to the Government of Iraq. Professor Gunter outlined five areas for consideration in managing the response to declining government revenues, including potential devaluation of the dinar, the continued strain of public sector salaries—accounting for around 70% of income—and the need to strengthen the private sector to support economic diversification. He noted that in previous periods of pressure, notably in 2014 and 2023, diversification through the private sector was identified as a priority, but reforms, strategies, and deregulation were not implemented.

The present situation is a poisoned chalice for the incoming Prime Minister, who will have little choice but to make difficult decisions, while also facing a longer-term reduction in oil revenues, with prices expected to move towards $60 per barrel against a fiscal baseline of $84. The situation may be further affected by a potential deterioration in the Iranian economy.

More than 25 members attended, including advisers from SBBC, reflecting continued engagement and interest. Contributions from members included Edward Oakden of International Development Bank, Jamil Choucair of Standard Chartered Bank, and Osama Daneshyar of Al Nesoor Law.

The next meeting will take place on Thursday 30 April. Jon Wilks will provide a brief update on developments in the Middle East, followed by a member forum in which participants will share sector responses and practical approaches to operating under the ongoing conflict and economic pressures.